“Alberta broke every construction record in 2025. Now Calgary has 17,000 unsold units. Records are not a strategy.”
In 2025, Alberta broke every record.
54,900 housing starts. Best numbers in the country. Every developer was bullish.
March 2026: sales down 12.9%. Calgary sitting on 17,118 unsold units.
The market moved. The story didn’t.
Here’s what the data actually shows:
→ Average price: $533,201 — still up 2.3% month-over-month → New listings: 10,635 units in March — supply keeps coming → Housing starts 2025: +15% YoY. Absorption rate? Not keeping pace.
The segment under the most pressure? Apartments and row homes.
Detached is holding. The condo pipeline is a different conversation.
This is not a crash. But it’s not the 2025 story either.
What happened?
Builders kept building while buyers slowed down. Supply outpaced absorption. The math was always going to land somewhere.
There’s also a split that most headlines are missing:
Edmonton is outperforming Calgary right now for investors. Same province. Different dynamics. Different decision.
For anyone allocating capital or starting a project in Alberta — the question isn’t “is the market growing?”
It is.
But WHICH segment. WHICH city. WHICH timing.
Growth doesn’t make every project viable. Feasibility does.
If you’re evaluating something in Alberta and want a second read on the numbers — I’m happy to take a look.
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