Material costs up 15% in 2026. Most Alberta feasibility studies never saw it coming — because they only modeled one scenario.

That’s not a data problem. It’s a methodology problem.
Here’s what the numbers actually show:
→ CMHC projects national housing starts declining through 2028 — multi-family taking the hardest hit
→ Altus Group’s 2026 Cost Guide shows unit costs rising across most Canadian jurisdictions
→ Alberta single-detached and infill still hold opportunity — but only if financing holds and margins are modeled honestly

The issue isn’t the market. It’s how developers are reading it.
Most feasibility studies I review are built on a single cost assumption.
One number. One scenario. One outcome.

When material costs shift +15% — and in 2026, they do — that single scenario becomes a liability, not a plan.

The developers who are still moving forward in Alberta right now aren’t ignoring the headwinds.

They’re stress-testing against them.

A feasibility study that only works in perfect conditions isn’t a feasibility study. It’s a best-case pitch deck.

For any developer, investor, or contractor currently scoping projects in Alberta — the question isn’t “does this pencil out?”
It’s: “does this still pencil out when costs move?”

If you’re working on a project and want a second read on your feasibility assumptions — I’m happy to take a look.

#Alberta #AlbertaRealEstate #CanadaConstruction #Feasibility #ProjectManagement #RealEstateDevelopment #ConstructionManagement

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