Most condo and townhouse pro formas in King County were built for a market that no longer exists.

Seattle just posted the biggest home-price drop in the country, with inventory surging. But the county-wide headline hides what actually matters for builders.

The market changed. The pro formas didn’t.

Here’s what the NWMLS March data actually shows for King County condos:
→ Active listings: up 40% year-over-year
→ Pending sales: down 19%
→ Median price: up just 2.5%

Read those three together. Supply is surging, demand is pulling back, and price isn’t rising enough to cover the gap.

The segment feeling it first? Attached product — condo and townhouse infill.

Detached is holding better. But infill margins live and die on absorption pace — and absorption just slowed.

This is not a crash. It’s stabilization, not collapse.

So what changed?

Supply finally caught up. Builders kept delivering while buyers turned selective. On a 6-unit infill townhouse project, a two-month slip in absorption can quietly erase the margin the pro forma assumed in a hot market.

For anyone underwriting a project in King County right now — developer, GC, investor — one question matters more than the headlines:

WHICH segment, WHICH submarket, WHICH absorption pace.

Not “is Seattle still growing?” It is.

But growth doesn’t mean every project pencils. Feasibility does.

If you’re evaluating a condo or townhouse infill deal in King County and want a second read on the numbers before you commit — I’m happy to take a look.

#SeattleRealEstate #KingCounty #Feasibility #ConstructionManagement #RealEstateDevelopment

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