Most Alberta developers aren’t losing money on site. They’re losing it 18 months earlier — and don’t know it yet.

Twelve months ago, every developer in Alberta was pointing at the same number.

54,900 housing starts. +18% versus Q1 2024. Best performance in the country.

The market looked bulletproof.

It isn’t.

Here’s what the data actually shows:

→ Alberta starts are still elevated — but proposed project value just hit $244.9B → Labour is tighter, wages are higher, trades coordination is harder → Absorption is no longer automatic when supply keeps moving faster than assumptions

The projects feeling it most?

The ones that were underwritten when the market felt easy.

This is not a story about Alberta slowing down.

Alberta is still growing.

But growth doesn’t protect a project with weak assumptions.

It exposes it.

What breaks first?

Timeline assumptions built on 2023 labour costs.

Absorption models that ignored product mix.

Scope defined before permits — then repriced three times on site.

The market doesn’t punish bad construction.

It punishes bad feasibility.

By the time you’re on site, the mistake is already 18 months old.

The question isn’t “is Alberta a good market?”

It is.

The question is: does YOUR project hold up when costs stabilize at a new ceiling, capital gets selective, and absorption requires the right product in the right location?

FEASIBILITY first. Permits second. Shovels third.

If you’re working on a project in Alberta and want a second read on the numbers before you commit — happy to look at it together.

#AlbertaRealEstate #ConstructionManagement #FeasibilityStudy #PropertyDevelopment #AlbertaConstruction

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