CMHC just reported the best month for housing starts in years. Then buried the forecast nobody wants to read.

Every serious developer and builder in Alberta should understand this:

— April 2026: housing starts jumped 17% nationally (279,317 units SAAR)

— CMHC forecast: new construction will decline until 2028

— Both numbers are real. They’re just measuring different things.

The spike is a short-term flush of approved permits finally breaking ground.

The structural trend is something else entirely:

— High construction costs (up 2.2% from new 2026 energy codes)

— Weak forward demand from buyers sitting on the sidelines

— Unsold inventory quietly building in secondary markets

— Investors shifting from capital appreciation to cash flow logic

The market isn’t contradicting itself.

It’s telling you exactly where it’s going.

ONE number tells you what happened last month. THE OTHER tells you what to plan for the next 24 months.

If your feasibility study is built on April’s starts data, you’re solving the wrong problem.

Build your numbers on what CMHC sees coming. Not on what just happened.

#AlbertaRealEstate #ConstructionAlberta #HousingMarket #FeasibilityStudy #ProjectManagement #CMHCData #CanadaHousing #BuildingAlberta

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