Alberta Housing Starts 2026: What the CMHC Forecast Really Means for Developers

In May 2026, CMHC reported that housing starts in Canada jumped 17% in April, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 279,317 units. Two months later, its mid-year Housing Market Outlook forecast that new construction will keep declining until at least 2028. Both numbers are real. They simply measure different things, and developers in Alberta need to understand the difference before building feasibility studies on either one.

This article explains what the monthly starts data and the CMHC forecast say, what they mean for Calgary and Edmonton, and how to use them in project planning.

The April spike

CMHC’s April 2026 release showed a national annual pace of 279,317 starts, up from 239,747 in March. The six-month trend rose more modestly, by 3.2% to 256,777. CMHC’s deputy chief economist described the increase as following several months of decline and underlined the uneven nature of construction activity and month-to-month volatility.

In Alberta, the picture was mixed. Calgary recorded 1,257 actual starts in April, 59% fewer than in April 2025, and its six-month trend fell 15%. Edmonton recorded 1,705 starts, down 8% year over year, with a trend up 3% from March.

Monthly starts are volatile because large multi-unit projects are counted when construction begins. A few big projects breaking ground in one month can create a spike that says little about the underlying direction.

The structural forecast

CMHC’s summer update to its 2026 Housing Market Outlook, published in July, gives the longer view. Nationally, starts are forecast to fall from 259,028 in 2025 to about 241,400 in 2026, 223,400 in 2027 and 211,900 in 2028 in the baseline scenario. Average prices are expected to decline through 2026 and grow only modestly afterward.

For Alberta’s two largest cities, the baseline forecast is:

• Calgary: starts falling from 27,684 in 2025 to about 22,000 in 2026, 21,000 in 2027 and 19,500 in 2028; average price around $650,000; rental vacancy rising to about 5.9% in 2026 and 6.2% in 2027.
• Edmonton: starts falling from 21,337 in 2025 to about 16,000 in 2026, 15,500 in 2027 and 14,500 in 2028; average price around $460,000 rising to $480,000 by 2028; vacancy around 4.8% to 5.2%.

CMHC notes that builders are responding to unsold inventory and high construction costs, while demand in the Prairies remains relatively strong and the region is expected to lead price growth.

Two numbers, two questions

The April spike tells you what happened last month: a flush of approved projects breaking ground. The forecast tells you what to plan for over the next 24 months: fewer new projects, more completions competing for buyers and tenants, and rising rental vacancy in Calgary.

If your feasibility study is built on a strong month of starts data, you are solving the wrong problem. Build your numbers on what the structural trend suggests, not on what just happened.

Why starts are expected to decline

High construction costs

Construction prices rose about 4% year over year nationally at the end of 2025. New energy code requirements and tariffs on some materials add further pressure.

Unsold inventory

In Calgary, apartment months of supply reached 4.62 in March 2026. Builders are reluctant to launch new projects while completed and pre-sold inventory remains unsold.

Weaker forward demand

Population growth in Alberta is slowing to about 1.5% in 2026, and many buyers are waiting for clearer price signals.

Investor logic has changed

With price growth expected to be modest, investors are focusing on cash flow rather than appreciation. Projects that depended on investor presales face a smaller buyer pool.

What it means for developers

• Plan for the delivery market: a project starting in 2026 will complete in 2027 or 2028, when CMHC expects Calgary vacancy above 6%.
• Favour products with tight supply: ground-oriented family housing and differentiated rental may outperform generic apartments.
• Phase large projects: phasing reduces exposure if absorption is slower than expected.
• Lock costs early: procure long-lead items and secure trade pricing once design is frozen.
• Stress-test financing: model longer lease-up and sell-out periods.

Opportunities in a declining starts environment

Fewer starts today can mean tighter supply later. If construction slows significantly in 2026 to 2028 while population keeps growing, even at a slower pace, the market could tighten again toward the end of the decade. Developers with land, approvals and well-planned projects ready to launch may be well positioned for that turn. The key is to hold good options without committing to construction before the numbers support it.

How to use starts data in feasibility

Use the six-month trend rather than single monthly figures, compare starts with completions and absorption in your segment, and always read national data alongside the city-level breakdown. For Alberta projects, CMHC’s city tables for Calgary and Edmonton, CREB and Realtors Association of Edmonton market statistics and the provincial population forecasts together give a much more reliable picture than any single headline.

Rental vacancy is the number to watch in Calgary

For rental developers, CMHC’s forecast of Calgary vacancy rising to about 5.9% in 2026 and 6.2% in 2027 is more important than any starts figure. Higher vacancy means longer lease-up periods, more incentives and slower rent growth, which directly affect the valuation of a completed rental building and its refinancing. Projects already under construction should plan lease-up budgets accordingly, and projects not yet started should test whether their returns hold with vacancy at these levels for the first two years of operation.

The bottom line

The market is not contradicting itself. One number tells you what happened last month; the other tells you where it is going. For developers in Alberta, the forecast matters more than the spike: fewer starts, higher costs, rising rental vacancy in Calgary and modest price growth. Build your feasibility on that reality.

If you want help testing a project against current forecasts, see my feasibility and project management services, read about where feasibility breaks in Alberta, or contact me.

Frequently asked questions

How many housing starts are forecast for Calgary in 2026?

CMHC’s baseline forecast is about 22,000 starts in 2026, down from 27,684 in 2025.

Are housing starts in Canada expected to fall?

Yes. CMHC forecasts national starts declining from 259,028 in 2025 to about 211,900 in 2028 in its baseline scenario.

Why did housing starts jump in April 2026?

Monthly starts are volatile; a number of large projects breaking ground can lift the monthly rate. The six-month trend rose only 3.2%.

Sources

• CMHC: Housing starts, April 2026
• CMHC: Summer update, 2026 Housing Market Outlook
• REW: Calgary market analysis, March 2026

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